NHTSA estimates 425 fewer deaths in the first half
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released preliminary estimates on November 10 projecting 16,750 motor vehicle traffic deaths from January through June 2026. That is 425 fewer deaths, or a 2.5% decline, compared with the agency’s projected 17,175 fatalities in the first half of 2025. NHTSA says the result would represent the second-lowest first-half fatality rate in the historical series.
The fatality rate fell while total travel increased
Federal Highway Administration preliminary data show vehicle miles traveled increased by about 12.9 billion miles, or 0.8%, during the first six months of 2026. With more travel and fewer estimated deaths, the national fatality rate declined from 1.05 to 1.02 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles. The rate measures all motor-vehicle traffic, not just commercial vehicles or truck-involved crashes.
Improvement was concentrated in the first quarter
The first-quarter estimate fell 5.0% year over year, from 8,120 to 7,715 deaths. The second-quarter estimate declined only 0.2%, from 9,055 to 9,035. Monthly projections decreased in January through April, then increased 1.5% in May and 3.0% in June compared with the same months of 2025. Fleets should therefore avoid reading the six-month average as proof that risk improved uniformly throughout the period.
State trends varied substantially
NHTSA projects fatality declines in 35 states and Puerto Rico, while 15 states and the District of Columbia show increases. The estimates range from sizeable reductions in some states to increases in others; for example, Pennsylvania’s projected total rose from 445 to 502, or 12.8%, while neighboring New Jersey declined 2.6% and New York declined 1.7%. These are all-road-user projections and do not identify the cause, road class, crash type or commercial-vehicle involvement behind a state’s change.
The numbers are preliminary and will be revised
The 2025 and 2026 figures are statistical projections based on NHTSA fatal-crash data and FHWA mileage estimates. NHTSA says the counts, rates and percentage changes will be revised as Fatality Analysis Reporting System files and final mileage data become available. The agency expects to refine the picture again when it releases estimates for the first nine months of 2026. The report does not announce a new regulation, exemption or enforcement standard.
Driver and fleet takeaway
Treat the national decline as encouraging context, not as permission to relax controls or as a scorecard for an individual carrier. Drivers should continue managing speed, following distance, distraction, impairment, fatigue, work-zone hazards and changing weather on every trip. Fleets should compare their own preventable-crash, hard-braking, speeding, near-miss and injury data by terminal, route and time of day; investigate recent changes in May and June exposure; and use state-level estimates only to prioritize deeper review, not to assign a cause. Preserve accurate crash and mileage records so internal rates can be calculated against actual fleet exposure.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration — First-Half 2026 Traffic Fatality Estimates
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