Federal outlook points to prolonged distillate tightness
The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that domestic distillate fuel oil inventories will fall below 100 million barrels in September 2026 and remain below the five-year 2021–2025 low through much of 2027. Distillates include diesel fuel and heating oil, so the forecast is directly relevant to trucking even though it is not a prediction of one exact retail pump price. EIA released the current Short-Term Energy Outlook on September 9.
Global supply and exports are tightening the U.S. balance
EIA says tight global distillate markets have raised domestic prices and encouraged higher U.S. distillate exports. The agency assumes global distillate production will remain below the prior year’s level in the coming months, contributing to low U.S. diesel inventories and elevated diesel prices. The outlook also estimates that global oil inventories had declined by 400 million barrels during 2026 through the forecast cutoff, supporting higher crude prices.
EIA raised its refining-margin assumptions
The September outlook forecasts a distillate crack spread of $1.57 per gallon for 2026, up 20.8% from the previous forecast of $1.30. For 2027, the forecast is $1.25 per gallon, 28.5% above the prior $0.97 estimate. A crack spread is the modeled difference between the wholesale value of refined fuel and crude-oil cost; it is not a carrier fuel surcharge or the full price paid at a truck stop. Taxes, distribution, regional supply and retail margins also affect the pump.
The forecast has an important timing limit
EIA finalized the model inputs on September 3 and states that the outlook does not specifically account for market events after that date. Forecasts can change as production, exports, refinery operations, inventories, weather and global conditions change. Fleets should use the report as a planning scenario, not as a guarantee that diesel will move in one direction every week or that all regions will experience the same price.
Driver and fleet takeaway
Update fuel-cost assumptions in bids and lane reviews instead of relying on an older annual average. Check which EIA benchmark, base price and update date control each customer fuel surcharge, and compare the recovery with actual gallons, total miles and deadhead. Consider a higher fuel contingency in cash-flow planning, review network discounts and regional purchase patterns, and avoid committing to fixed all-in rates without a clear fuel provision. Drivers can support the plan through accurate fuel receipts, sensible idle reduction, proper tire inflation and prompt reporting of mechanical problems that reduce fuel economy; detours for cheaper fuel should still account for added miles, tolls, time and hours-of-service limits.
U.S. Energy Information Administration — September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook
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