BTS adds two trucking-relevant estimates
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics said on September 18 that it has expanded its preliminary-estimates model to cover TransBorder Freight and Vehicle Miles Traveled, along with transit and Amtrak ridership. The regression-based approach uses indicators that become available earlier than the complete target datasets. For trucking businesses, the expansion creates a timelier federal signal about cross-border trade activity and overall road use, but it does not replace final statistics or a carrier’s operating records.
How the cross-border freight estimate works
For TransBorder Freight, BTS uses the Census Bureau’s FT900 report on U.S. international trade in goods and services as the lead indicator. The target dataset is the detailed monthly freight-flow series between the United States and Canada and Mexico, which has a two-month processing lag. BTS says linear-regression models connect the earlier trade figures with the detailed freight metrics to produce preliminary monthly flows.
Vehicle miles traveled gets an earlier signal
The VMT model was developed jointly by BTS and the Federal Highway Administration. It uses FHWA Traffic Volume Trends reports, based on hourly counts from roughly 5,000 continuous monitoring stations, together with macroeconomic indicators to estimate total road usage. VMT covers more than commercial trucks, so a change in the estimate should not be interpreted as a direct measure of truckload demand or fleet utilization.
What the model does not measure
A preliminary estimate is an early statistical product, not a final audited count, a spot-rate forecast or a guarantee that freight will rise on a particular lane. National and cross-border totals can move differently from a carrier’s customer tenders, commodity mix, equipment type, border crossing or return-load market. Estimates may also change when complete source data becomes available.
Practical fleet takeaway
Cross-border carriers can use the new estimates as an early directional check when reviewing capacity, seasonal staffing and customer forecasts, then validate the signal against booked loads, customs activity, wait times, revenue per total mile and deadhead by lane. Domestic fleets can compare VMT trends with their own utilization, maintenance intervals and congestion experience. Do not buy equipment, change rates or add drivers solely because a preliminary national estimate moves; require supporting evidence from current customers and the lanes actually operated.
U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics — Preliminary Estimates Model Expands its Portfolio
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